Wheats Faded into the Weekend


After a week of buying into the data release and seeing a mostly bull-friendly update, wheat futures pulled back into the weekend. Chicago futures went home 9 to 11 cents in the red, but still 29 cents above last Friday’s close. KC HRW futures settled with 3 to 6 ½ cent losses on the day, but held onto a 14 cent gain for the week. Spring wheat futures closed 7 ¾ to 8 ¼ cents in the red. March HRS finished the week with a net ¾ cent loss. The cash average price for wheat from the WASDE report was a dime higher at $7.30. 

Commitment of Traders data showed SRW wheat spec traders closed out 21k shorts, reducing their net short to 96,222 contracts. Managed money traders also covered shorts in KC wheat, leaving the group on a 38,858 contract net short as of 12/5. Managed funds were shown with a 26,891 contract net short for MPLS wheat, 2k contracts weaker also via short covering. 

USDA reported China booked another 110k MT of SRW via private export sale. 

USDA’s December balance sheet for the domestic wheat situation increased the SRW exports by 30 mbu to 175 mbu, while also trimming the white wheat by 5. On net that set the total wheat exports 25 mbu higher to 725 mbu. That cut projected carryout to 659 mbu, compared to the UNCH 684 trade average guess going into the release.  They raised the projected cash average price 10 cents per bushel for the year, due to the stronger export demand. 

The global wheat picture saw a 1 MMT boost for Australian wheat production and a 950k MT boost for Canada. The global carryout was then 500k MT tighter to 258.2, compared to the 100k MT looser carryout expected. 

Dec 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.15, down 11 cents,

Mar 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.31 3/4, down 10 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $4.75 5/8, up 11 5/8 cents,

Mar 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.61, down 6 1/2 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $5.47 3/8, up 5 1/4 cents,

Mar 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $7.29 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents,

On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.